First let me say , that this is only the 12 coup Thailand has had and even more attempted coups since it relinquished absolute monarchy in 1932. Why and who and what is not our concern, as we have no political affiliation and we respect what ever decision is made by the people of Thailand and/or the powers that be.
Since we are real estate consultants, our primary interest is in how this will affect the Thai Real Estate Market with an emphasis on Bangkok. If history is to be an indicator we can say that not one bit. Though one would think instability may send markets crashing this is not the case now or has it been in the past. The reason we believe is that Thailand is stable, and the coup with the Generals stepping in more or less assure that stability as has been in the past and appears so now.
What indicators do we have that Real Estate Market is stable ?
Well our biggest indicator that we know and is actual hard data is the number of inquires we have received for purchases and rental units. Since the military announced the Marshall Law we have actually seen an increase in activity of individuals looking for condos and houses in Bangkok. This is hard data we can see and verify ourselves.
Why there is an increase of buyers is not entirely known. One thought, it could be people thought there may be some deals to be had, as perhaps some foreigners panicked and would sell cheap and leave Thailand. Perhaps its just simply a coincidence or some unknown factor. Our analysis only can go so deep on such data at this time. Yet we can say for certain there has been some increase in people seeking property at this time.
If we look at other economic indicators the Thai stock market actually may be welcoming a military intervention as the market detest uncertainty and one thing most investors see the military as stable and perhaps a good force for stability.
As one financial observer noted:
Derek Bloomfield, Deutsche Bank: “Silver lining aspects of military intervention … We attribute this to: 1) immediate uncertainty regarding politics is suddenly diminished (even as medium-to-longer term uncertainties remain the same or even heightened), and 2) military deployment quells risk of large-scale protest groups from either or both rival camps from assembling and causing widespread damage.”
In summary, its stability we see from the present coup and seems to be shown in past events.
The Thai Baht only was marginally down against the dollar during this crisis so far.
What we advise:
If your a buyer or looking for long term rental proceed as if the coup does not exist. It will at some point morph into something else as has in the past perhaps better doubtful worse. Most Thais and expats continue as if the politics is outside their world, in fact it is. The military will see that the country does not have escalating violence or events deteriorate , this is true now as it has in the past.
If your seller, don’t panic and understand this country has a stable history of stable coups so to speak with little if any effect on foreigners. The property values have not dropped and remain stable. So unless you absolutely have to get out of Thailand in hurry, then we do not advise selling at lower than market value of your condo or property.